 |
| South Korean troops stationed along the Korean DMZ |
On Sunday 03-May-2020, North and South Korean soldiers exchanged gunfire across the demilitarized zone along the North-South Korean border. All sources indicated that there were no casualties taken on either side. A defense official from South Korea stated that they believe the incident to be accidental. According to the South Koreans on Sunday morning gunfire hit a South Korean guard post in the town of Cheorwon. South Korean troops in response fired 20 warning shots along with a warning broadcast. They state that their warning shots were fired into an uninhabited zone, eliminating the chances of North Korean casualties. So far there has been no response from the DPRK in any way shape or form. They haven't made a press statement or told anything to the South Koreans. Currently all troop movements in the North remain normal and there are no signs of any mobilization. This incident occurred days after Kim Jong Un made a public appearance for the first time in 3 weeks. No one knows what the Supreme Leader was doing during that time, and it seems that it will remain that way. It seems very unlikely that this was a Marco Polo Bridge Incident. Even if the North wanted a war, creating one right now makes zero logical and strategical sense. After all, Disease and war are a deadly combination. It's also fair to assume that due to the DPRK's isolation they have relatively few Covid-19 cases, and it would make no sense to put themselves at risk by pouring into South Korea. Thankfully as time goes on, war it seems is becoming both too expensive and risky. Leading everyone to try to avoid it as much as possible no matter what.
1. Did this situation have the potential to spark a conflict?
2. Is it possible that Kim Jong Un's unusual absence is in any way related to the incident?
3. Was this another Marco Polo Bridge incident (was is provoked)?
Sources:
https://www.vox.com/2020/5/3/21245664/north-south-korea-gunfire-exchange-shoot
https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/at-the-border-between-north-and-south-korea-royalty-free-image/916185938?adppopup=true
This situation easily had the potential to spark a conflict because after NK the DPRK fired, South Korea could've easily shot back directly at the DPRK's soldiers, which would've prompted a massive shootout between the two countries. I don't believe that Kim Jong Un's unusual absence was related to the incident because if he wanted to start a war, he would've told his soldiers to shoot at the South Koreans more than once, and would've started an actual conflict if it was purposeful.
ReplyDeleteI feel like the South Korean side was feeling safer because of reports that Kim Jong Un was absent and could have had health problems. because both sides are technically still at war because they never signed peace treaties. It may be a mistake from a soldier such a misfired shot, or perhaps it was deliberate. What happeed there definiely did raise tensions, but I don't think either side will be continuing the war during such times.
ReplyDeleteI feel that if there were casualties on either side it would have the potential for a bigger conflict. However, it would make no sense on why North Korea would want a war now especially with the virus and the health of Kim Jong Un. It is impossible to tell if Kim Jong Un has had anything to do with this incident because of the reliability of information coming from North Korea. We have no idea whether Kim Jong Un really made a public appearance or if the video was filmed months ago. In addition, this event comes as a surprise to many because it seemed that North and South Korean relations were beginning to warm. If this was another Marco Polo Bridge Incident, which I don't think it is, it would be a major step back for peace and North Korean relations.
ReplyDeleteThis incident could have most certainly sparked a conflict if even one of the soldiers on either side got injured or died. Thankfully, to our knowledge, no one did hurt but unfortunately not a lot of information has been released and so far we only have a couple reports, which I believe are all from South Korea's side so who knows. I don't think this had something to do with Kim Jong Un's disappearance because it seems odd that nothing would happen except for a single shot from North Korea's soldiers. Hopefully this whole incident was just an accident or misunderstanding.
ReplyDeleteI believe that this incident could have lead to a potentially deeper conflict between the two Koreas. However, this incident would probably only create tensions, and not a war, as there really isn't a need to start war right now considering the situation. North Korea still is weak due to the absence of ailing Kim Jong Un (if it's true), and they wouldn't want to cause any trouble while their leader is still sick.This incident is most likely not another Marco Polo Bridge Incident, as it was probably just a misunderstanding with no harmful intentions.
ReplyDeleteI dont think this was provoked Accidents happen, and considering this doesnt happen everyday on such a heavily militrized border shows that the north koreans are very carefull on how they hanndle the border so I doubt this was provoked by the north koreans.
ReplyDeleteDue to the seemingly accidental nature of the incident I don't think there is any reason to believe that North Korea did this on purpose, especially since there weren't any follow up shots from the North. I personally think this was a mistake.
ReplyDelete