Recently, Donald Trump made efforts to limit the trade deficit with China by encouraging China to buy more US products and discouraging the purchase of Chinese products in America. He aimed to do this by a peaceful negotiation with China to avoid the all out "trade war" many foretasted would occur as a result of Trump's "America First" policy. One of the main criticisms of his deal is that it attempted to fix only the materials side of what is a more complex issue. One of the biggest "fights" between the US and China is not the physical import and export of goods but the transfer of intellectual materials, a transfer that many believe China was violating. This agreement made no attempts to mitigate or even address this issue.
Link to Article
Discussion Questions:
1. Do you think China will follow through on their claims to purchase more US goods?
2. Is this agreement sufficient to resolve a "trade war" or has it merely postponed it?
3. Especially with regards to intellectual property, what further steps must be taken?
To be honest, I don't think China will follow through on their claims to purchase more US goods because there's really no incentive in the deal for them to do so. If China were to renege on it's promises, there's not much the US can do in retaliation that would both hurt China and resolve the trade war, so I believe this deal is just a postponement of the trade war and not a real solution. As stated in the article, this deal fails to resolutely punish ZTE with violations and, at the same time, there are conflicting statements from both sides on exactly what has been accomplished. There is still a lot that needs to be done to prevent this trade war from escalating. I think the only way to not inflame tensions is to handle punishment for violations case by case, especially on the intellectual property issue. Although that would be costly and time-consuming, I don't see another way out because the current agreement attempts to solve the entire problem at once, rendering it practically useless in actually targeting anything for change.
ReplyDeleteI do not believe that China will follow through on their claims of buying more goods from the US because there is no incentive for them to. First of all it costs more to them and they already have ways to get what they want because literally everything is made in China. The trade war will continue to get worse because this so-called agreement is simply to postpone this issue for later. For the intellectual cases, they need to actually spend time on each individually because right now, they have made all of them generalized, and soon they will realize that this method will lead them to find nothing that they can easily change.
ReplyDeleteI believe that this, along with other factors, will end up resolving the trade war, though not necessarily with a good ending. The Washington Post reported that this increase of American purchases caused Trump to back off on his plan to impose billions of dollars in tariffs. Unfortunately, though this did help the US, it was not the $200 billion deficit fix Trump was aiming for with the trade war. Thankfully, the dispute ended without the USA suffering from increased prices on Chinese products, but the US clearly lost the economic battle against China.
ReplyDeleteFirstly, a trade war is not inherently a bad thing. Oftentimes the public and media assumes that a deficit automatically points to a huge loss in the American economy, but in actuality, statistics show that when there's a trade deficit it means that American consumers are buying more goods because the economy was doing very well. It's important to focus on the balance between buying domestic and foreign goods, but a trade war poses too high of a price, literally. Because China will retaliate with their own set of tariffs, if the ceasefire doesn't last, American exports will be greatly impacted. A huge American export is soybeans, and these small farmers will feel a huge impact from a large-scale trade war. Trump needs to readily focus on all aspects of what the agreement would actually declare, not only the interests of China to mitigate the threat tariffs pose, but the intellectual property dispute as well. The US actually has a surplus of intellectual property if accounted for separately, which includes services and technology. The agreement also needs to address what regulations should be enforced to limit the disputes in the transfer of exports between the two countries to ensure that violations will be clear if they occur.
ReplyDeleteI don’t think that China will follow through on their claims to purchase more US goods, because they don’t have any reason to. Each country has their own interests, and they can’t both be fulfilled completely at the same time. It’s good that the US and China have agreed to not impose the hundreds of billions of dollars of tariffs on each others, and China has agreed to increase purchases of American goods, there still hasn’t been any confirmation on the dollar amount that China will increase purchases by. Even if China does follow through with their agreement to significantly import more from the US, it wouldn’t mean the end of tension between the two countries. It’s difficult for the US to make progress on the more important issue of IP theft, which has cost the US economy billions of dollars in revenue and thousands of jobs.
ReplyDeleteChina most likely will not follow through on their claims to purchase more US goods, or at least, not thoroughly. China, an economic giant, has nothing pushing them to buy more than they currently do from the US, no incentive. Especially with the very undiplomatic attitude Trump has had in dealing with them, why would they want to purchase more from our country? Nearly all products in America are made in or associated with China, and if it comes down to who would suffer more in the event of a trade war, it certainly wouldn't be China. One would hope, in light of the recent events and deals with China, they'd have more reason to stop intellectual property theft and be limited on investing in the US. However, our incredibly talented president quickly bent his knee during negotiations, and China still has no big incentive to increase their purchase of US exports and other actions that would help our country out. Sure, they've agreed to a few concessions, but, as Senator Marco Rubio has stated, "Their concessions are things they planned to do anyways. In exchange they get no tariffs, can keep stealing intellectual property and can keep blocking our companies while they invest in the US without limits." So no, this agreement is not sufficient to stop a trade war, it is merely postponing the inevitable at this rate. Further steps that must be taken include an intelligent, strategic move in negotiations that would force China to concede to more equal terms, and increase our exports and relationships with other countries besides China.
ReplyDeleteI think that China will follow through on its claim that it will purchase more U.S. goods in order to prevent, or at least postpone a trade war. I think this is a step in the right direction to help prevent a trade war, but more negotiations may need to be made in the long run.
ReplyDeleteI don't think China will follow through and purchase more US goods. The whole agreement does not benefit the country in any way. Personally, I think the only reason China agreed to the plan in the first place was to avoid any problems with the United States. Their plan was to agree with the US to buy themselves time to sort out a way to prevent altercations with the US and save themselves as a country financially. It makes no sense for China to agree, and that's why I see no reason for them wanting to agree to it. The fact is that the United States is a powerful country, and it would be dangerous for China to get into a trade war with them. Their agreement was only to satisfy the US.
ReplyDeleteI agree with many of the comments that China will most likely not follow through with their claim of buying more US goods because the purpose of this is so the US will purchase less from China and this could potentially discourage the Chinese to buy from us instead. If China began mostly only importing, it could not be economically beneficial to the Chinese. I think that this will not majorly affect the potential "trade war" since this is merely a proposal by Trump that does not have to be followed. In regards to intellectual property, it should be discussed more deeply between the two leaders and they should mention it more than just vague statements.
ReplyDeleteI believe that China may follow through with their claims of purchasing more US goods to meet the growing consumption needs of Chinese people and the need for more economic development. President Trump and Xi Jin Ping have agreed on "meaningful increases" in US agriculture and energy exports to reduce the US trade deficit with China and to boost growth and employment in the US. In addition, according to Business Insider, a global trade war would plunge the US into a recession and increase unemployment. Even if a trade war is avoided, the unintended consequences of an "aborted trade war" include the unemployment rate of 6.0%. (current rate of unemployment is 1.2%)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/economic-impact-trade-war-us-china-macquarie-2018-3
I don't think China will follow through with purchasing more US goods. I agree with Neel in the fact that it won't even benefit China. The US is a major contributor to the economy. I'm pretty sure this trade war will be present regardless. It's not something that can be fixed overnight as soon as there's a handshake. Trade happens to be a place where the US just can't win in. Unfortunately. There are a lot of other ways the US could make up for it though.
ReplyDeleteI think China will follow their claims on purchasing more US good. For instance, they purchase lots of tech products from US companies like Apple, Intel, and others. I’m not sure that the agreement is sufficient to resolve the “trade war”, just as US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said, it is just putting the whole thing on hold. We certainly need to find an agreement even if it means a compromise, due to China is one of the US’s major trade partner. They also mass produce lots of goods for US companies. I’m all for bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US, but having them in China is cheaper for businesses due to labor costs being so low. So, this could have an impact on trade between the US and China.
ReplyDeleteI do not think China will follow through purchasing more US goods and the primary reason is that China will not be getting anything out of this deal. It wouldn't make sense for them to agree to buying more US products if the US will lower the amount of products they purchase from China. This is a one sided deal that is in favor of the US only and it wouldn't make sense for China to agree to this since it would ultimately cost their economy. And in addition, I don't think this plan is a sufficient way to address any real problems the two countries are having. It is merely grazing the surface and making it seem purely economical when there are much deeper issues to be addressed.
ReplyDeleteIn reality the US and China's economies are dependent on each other because of the two being vast consumer nations. Whatever agreement that takes place needs to be aware that what happens to one nation will also affect the other. I think any negotiation is a step in the right direction, but they need to handle the situation professionally in order to ensure the safety of the people so that no one suffers as a result of the deal.
ReplyDeleteI don't think that China will purchase more US goods because China won't be benefiting from purchasing more goods from the US. This agreement is only putting off the inevitable trade war and it doesn't make sense for China to follow through with this. The intellectual property needs to be discussed further as it is not a surface level issue. I agree with most of the comments that his is not a good way to address the issues we are having with China and there are more issues that need to be handled.
ReplyDeleteI do not believe that China will follow through and purchase more goods from the United States. China will not receive any benefits from purchasing goods from the United States. China is economically huge and US is the one who buys most of their goods from China. So if a trade war occurs, US will be the one to suffer and not China. Nearly everything we US citizens own are from China. It is true that the tensions between China and the US are not the greatest and personally, it simply does not make sense if China starts to purchase more goods from the US. If it does follow through, it states that huge "fights" will occur with physical imports and goods. Thus, I believe China will not go through buying more US goods.
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