On Friday, April 27, 2018, the leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-Un, and leader of South Korea, Moon Jae-In, met in North Korea to cross the border together into South Korea. This event marks history as the first time a member of the Kim Dynasty has set foot in South Korea since the Korean War in 1953. Following the long-awaited unification of these two leaders, global uneasiness about the situation regarding nuclear weapons has calmed. The two leaders made a statement together that established their commitment to achieve “complete denuclearization” of the peninsula. Kim Jong-Un has agreed to close North Korea’s nuclear test site in May, though many people believe that the North Korean leader will not be willing to completely denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.
Discussion Questions:
1. Do you think Kim Jong-Un will follow through and denuclearize the Korean Peninsula? How would this benefit North Korea?
2. Do you think denuclearization of North Korea will create incentive for other countries to denuclearize? Why?
It is unlikely that Kim Jong-Un will follow through with denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, as they are his one leverage over the West and other Asian countries; however, there is a slim chance he may, due to sanctions having taken its toll on the North Korean government. The benefits North Korea would gain would be towards its economy: sanctions would be dropped, and the economy would be able to be developed. North Korea denuclearization may prove as an incentive for other countries to do so as well, as North Korea is powerful, and it would set an example. However, it is likely that it will not be an efficient incentive, as North Korea face different conditions than other countries. Either way, there is a possibility that through denuclearizing, North Korea could influence other countries to do so as well.
ReplyDeletesource used: https://www.economist.com/news/asia/21741148-kim-jong-un-wants-long-happy-life-unlike-those-his-subjects-north-koreas-despot-has-one-goal
I believe that North Korea may follow through with their claim of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, since not following through with their claim may result in international condemnation. NK is an international outcast, depending on China for food and trade, so the US lifting economic sanctions on NK will relieve them of their heavy reliance. Kim Jong Un has a history of killing those who get in his path (he has killed around 400 North Koreans for various reason, some who supposedly didn't cry enough at his dad's funeral and those who pose a threat to his rule). Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula will decrease international hatred of the country, leading to better relationships and trades with countries other than China. I believe that denuclearizing North Korea will alleviate many tensions that have been simmering for many years.
ReplyDeleteI think that maybe Kim Jong-Un will appear to denuclearize North Korea, but won’t actually do it because nuclear weapons are the only thing that really gives him power. Without nuclear weapons, he can’t really threaten other countries which dramatically decreases his bargaining power on the global stage. Getting rid of his sole bargaining chip for better diplomatic relations with South Korea, a country that it has historically had bad relations with and not needed, just doesn’t really make any sense. The only reason he would now be trying to better relations is to get something he wants. The complete denuclearization of North Korea just isn’t a gove move for Kim and his regime if they want to remain in power. However, it would be great for the people of North Korea because the possibility of humanitarian aid would greatly increase and people could start to live in better living conditions. According to Business Insider, the common people live in abject poverty and there are nearly no fat people in North Korea since everyone looks very thin. If North Korea does truely denuclearize and everything goes well for the South Koreans and Kim, if everyone gets what they want, the denuclearization of North Korea would encourage other countries in similar situations to denuclearize. However, like I said earlier I doubt that any of this is going to happen. I think most of Kim’s promises will fall through and him meeting the South Korean leader is just for show. This is especially since just last year, in 2017, as indicated by the Nuclear Threat Initiative, North Korea successfully tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile. Why would they give that up?
ReplyDeleteI agree with Nathan in that Kim Jong-Un relies on his nuclear power to be taken seriously. There is no way he will allow such an integral part of his foreing policy to disapear. He has also seen leaders in the Middle East denuclearize and be rewarded with coops, often puppetmastered by the US. However, if he did denuclearize, it will help North Korea legitimize itself as a part of the world. Kim Jong-Un, unlike his people, knows how behind North Korea is. Joining the world economy could greatly benefit his people.
ReplyDeleteI believe that the Korean Peninsula will be denuclearized, though it appears unlikely. Though countries are right to not trust Kim Jong-Un, the mere fact that he is now open to negotiations is a major step towards peace between the Koreas. According to The Independent, the Korean War finally ended after 65 years, which is a great indicator towards denuclearization. There have not been any signs of peace in the past, but with China now putting pressure on North Korea we might finally see progress being made.
ReplyDeleteI believe that Kim Jong-Un will most likely not follow through with the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula because with the nuclear weapons in his possession, he has more power. He is also able to defend North Korea from other countries trying to over power his country. While he could denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, I don't think that he wouldn't want that loss of protection for him as the leader of North Korea. However, if he did denuclearize the Peninsula, it would relieve some relations with South Korea, even though it wouldn't fix all the conflict between both North and South Korea. The denuclearization of North Korea could convince other countries to denuclearize their country, but I think other countries would feel safer that Korea had no nuclear weapons and continue to build on their nuclear weapons. With South Korea denuclearized, countries like the US and UK would try to put more pressure on the countries trying to maintain nuclear weapons to denuclearize.
ReplyDeleteThough I am certain this meeting will better relations between the two Koreas, and between North Korea and the rest of the world, I doubt the Korean Peninsula will ever denuclearize. Kim Jong-Un has seen what happens in the Middle East when small countries get overrun without the threat of nuclear weapons to hid behind. To him, nuclear weapons provide a powerful insurance that if the UN tries to force North Korea to open up to the world, they can destroy a major Asian city and claim millions of lives. The best situation we can hope for in the context of demilitarization is better relations with North Korea to help free imprisoned North Koreans.
ReplyDeleteWhile the idea of the Korean Peninsula being denuclearized sounds great, it's fairly unlikely it will happen very soon - if at all. Talks between countries usually take sometime, and even if all goes smoothly, demilitarization isn't something that happens over night. So while it's a nice thought that is what is happening, I don't exactly see it happening in the near future - or if ever. All we can hope for is these talks will produce better relations between North and South Korea, and possibly the world.
ReplyDeleteI'm fairly confident that North Korea will stop manufacturing nuclear warheads and will partly reduce their supply. However, North Korea will probably maintain possession of some nukes, as many countries do in case they need to immediately respond to an international threat. Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula would definitely ease tensions between countries near North Korea such as China. As a result, other countries may be less hostile to North Korea, possibly enough for them to feel comfortable making trade deals with each other. I don't think that other countries will denuclearize following the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula because North and South Korea weren't a big threat in the first place. If Kim Jong Un honors his agreement and denuclearizes, it would be the first step to building and developing peaceful and cooperative relations with other countries.
ReplyDeleteThis is a great event that has happened, to the world. However, I don't think it will change the motives of North & South nuclear warheads. The two leaders meeting is the first since 1953, it has been 65 years since the two hav been at peace. But we all know how sadistic North Koreas leader is, Kim Jong-Un has US officials estimating they have 60 nuclear weapons, whereas independent experts estimate it has enough uranium to produce six new nuclear bombs a year ( Asia Pacific). The North might try to reduce their warheads but neither country will stop their advancements with nuclear power. But with the advancement with the two countries helps to ensure that there will be less danger between the two.
ReplyDeleteWell, that sounds great, almost too good to be true actually, maybe because it partially is. The fact that this discussion has opened itself up is astounding, and I couldn't have been more glad to hear it, because it represents what this current political needs more of: leaders just talking to each other in a civil manner about issues greater than their own administrations. That being said, I'm doubtful that the peninsula will ever fully denuclearize, because as much as Mr. Un would like to make things seem, he still doesn't have the best interest of his country in mind. How can we trust a man to be willing to do what's best for the surrounding nations when he can't even do what's best for his own? The benefits would be numerous, and North Korea opening up relations economically to the rest of the world would surely be a positive for everyone, but the guy calling the shots is the same one who starved his own citizens. And why would he denuclearize in the first place? His name is practically associated with the idea of nuclear weapons at this point, I'm not joking, ask your sibling or one of your parents to say the first three names that pop into their head when they think nuclear weapons, and I can almost ensure you that his will be one of them. His name and country is practically synonymous with nuclear weapons, they're an integral part of the system he's set up since he came into the position, he threatens the world with them as often as I say to myself that I'll catch up with my blog comments, so it's just nice thinking to assume he'll let go of them that easily. Ultimately, I guess what I'm saying is that I don't know how much will actually eventuate from the agreement, but it represents something much greater than that, so even if it falls short of what was agreed upon, I'm happy that it at least happened.
ReplyDeleteI think North Korea is definitely taking huge steps considering their history of diplomatic relations with South Korea, and their previous incessant aim to belittle the rest of the world. They've had a rough diplomatic past regarding the Kim regime, riddled with corruption, erratic behavior, and isolationist tendencies. This coupled with the threat of their recent development of nuclear weapons has created a stronghold for an array of nations to perceive this country as an imminent threat. Because of these new developments, however, there are definitely grounds for an improved perception of North Korea. While North Korea has agreed to denuclearize multiple times in the past and not followed through, this time there is actual evidence that denuclearization is a tangible possibility. Meeting with South Korea and the US in these talks is evidence that they want to accomplish, at the very least, a discussion in which both sides can voice their opinions, and even establish an agreement. This is revolutionary, as talks such as these have never happened since the end of the Korean War in 1953. Participating in these talks will allow North Korea to step away from its isolationist tendencies, and also allow for diplomatic discourse, which could then allow them to be involved in bigger treaties and accomplish more as a country for the entire world. This is a big step to a larger goal that can definitely be accomplished.
ReplyDeleteKim Jong-Un has long been pressured to denuclearize and although we cannot be truly sure whether or not he will follow through, I think it is most definitely possible that Kim will begin the denuclearization process. By doing so, North Korea will only be putting themselves at an advantage and I think global support is one of the ways North Korea has been incentivized. By committing to begin denuclearization, North Korea will not only increase the likelihood of a beneficial relationship with its neighbor South Korea, but they will gain a lot more international support. Although many skeptics doubt Kim Jong-Un's willingness to follow through, the first steps (which are undoubtedly the hardest) have been made. I also think a denuclearization could definitely encourage other countries to follow, especially if the benefits reaped by this denuclearization are shown. North Korea has been notoriously tough in the refusal to denuclearize and by doing so they would be setting a positive example for other nations to follow. Overall it is great that these first steps have been taken and I believe North Korea is on the right track.
ReplyDeleteI think North Korea will pretend to follow through for demilitarization because it will make other countries happy. The North Korean leader will be unwilling to denuclearize because he wants power. It is hard to tell if he will follow through because this topic has been discussed for a long time. Also, by denuclearizing, North Korea will gain more support from other countries. At the moment, North Korea does not have many connections with many other countries. Denuclearizing would encourage other countries to follow, especially if it helps them gain support from other countries. It will promote global peace.
ReplyDeleteThis was a step in the right direction to try and make peace and unite North and South Korea. However I do not believe that Kim Jong-Un will completely denuclearize because they still feel threatened by the rest of the world because of their dictatorship. After this statement, if he follows up on his claim, he will receive a lot of support from other countries. Other countries may follow suit and begin to denuclearize to try and create world peace. This will gain support from people across the globe to promote peace rather than destruction. Hopefully with the discussion between the two countries they can resolve to peace rather than fights that constantly occur at the border. If Jong Un does not keep his promise, it will simply show the untruthfulness of North Korea and countries may start to protest causing problems for everyone. If this is implemented correctly, this discussion and agreement is a step in the right direction to achieve peace.
ReplyDeleteHonestly I feel like the thing to focus on is progress. For the longest time communication between North and South Korea has been out of the question. The fact that there is current conversation between the two sides is already a victory. The fact that denationalization is being discussed is a plus. If the conversation is happening then it brings the actual idea into perspective. In the past there has never been an opportunity for the topic to even be discussed and now there is an actual chance that things will change.
ReplyDeleteI think that Kim Jong-Un will mostly likely follow through with denuclearization. Currently, North Korea has been pressured by several other countries beside South Korea. The United States has been heavily involved in sorting out a solution with North Korea, and if the North Korea continues to hold on to their nuclear weapons, the relationship with the US could go south really quickly. The whole world is watching Kim Jong-Un and to have that kind of pressure on oneself can be a lot. I think he realizes the situation he is in and understands that he has to take a more peaceful approach to the situation and slow down with the nuclear weapons. This meeting with South Korea clearly shows his intentions and I think the wants to create better relationships with other countries and put the country in a better position.
ReplyDeleteI believe that Kim Jong-Un will not be completely willing to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. Similar to what Nathan stated, nuclear weapons is what gives King Jong-Un power. If he gives up that power, he will most likely be very vulnerable to other countries. However, on the other side, if Kim Jong-Un gives up nuclear weapons, I believe some other countries will as well give up their nuclear weapons. This will benefit North Korea because if they do not own any nuclear weapons, they may have an easier time communicating between other countries. This is important because people will not be in fear of dangerous attacks and will focus more on the communication, if that happens. If North Korea denuclearizes, it really depends on the other countries. Some country may also denuclearize, but I believe some may think that North Korean will be vulnerable at this situation and would want to take advantage of it. Therefore, there are both benefits and sacrifices in both decisions.
ReplyDeleteWhen I first heard about this, I was very confused especially by the fact that Kim Jung Un was the one who came out first to South Korea to denuclearize, I do think that he will follow through. I personally think that Kim Jong Un did this only because North Korea's economy is falling. There has been a collapse in trade with China, North Korea's exports went down 95% year on year and they only had $9 million in February. Imports were down by about a third to $103 million. So this could be sort of a cry of help from Kim and in the talks he had with Moon denuclearization might have been the results of the talks and in return North Korea might be receiving some economical aid.
ReplyDeleteI do not think that North Korea will denuclearize, since the country is known for ignoring every attempt to shut down the nuclear equipment.Because of this, North Korea can not exactly be trusted to follow completely through with the denuclearization. North Korea would further gain benefits because the world would consider the matter of North Korea nuclearization as finished.
ReplyDeleteWhile I think it would be great for North Korea to denuclearize, and reduce the fears of people all around the world, I do not completely trust that this will actually happen. It would benefit North Korea by improving international relations, and would help the economy because of this. However, I'm not sure that Kim Jong Un will follow through with the denuclearization because it may seem like surrender, and could be seen as weakness. Also, North Korea has greatly hated South Korea and the US since the end of the Korean War, and I do not see why they would suddenly stop. The denuclearization of North Korea may cause some incentive for other countries to denuclearize for peace, but I do not think major nuclear powers, like the US, France, China, and Russia will denuclearize.
ReplyDeleteI believe that this is a big step towards the future of nuclear weapons and denuclearization. Though I do not think North Korea will completely denuclearize in the near future, I do think that this shows the possibility of a better future, not only for North & South Korea, but other countries as well dealing with similar nuclear weapon issues. It will take some time & a lot of convincing & compromising for major powers to look towards complete denuclearization, but if North & South Korea do so, I think it will send a message to those countries, possibly convincing them to do so too.
ReplyDeleteI believe that eventually North Korea will be able to denuclearize however I think this would be achieved over a vast period of time. For a country where nuclear weapons have been so prominent, it would not be possible to completely cut them out in a short amount of time. It might take some adjustment. I think that this would be an incentive to other countries because North Korea has always been known for their nuclear weapons and seeing that a country so reliant on these weapons was able to cut them out, it would inspire other countries to do the same or more so, believe they could do the same.
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