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Tax cuts that President Trump campaigned upon and achieved in the end of 2017 may accelerate the demographic problems that threaten the Republican Party in its current form. If businesses and workers flock to Arizona, Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina due to cheaper real estate and lower taxes, Republicans may lose control of these states sooner than expected. The reason for this is younger voters are increasingly abandoning the Republican Party and they are the ones most likely to follow job creation in these Sun Belt states where Democrats have already been making gains.
Discussion Questions
1. Although the events of the next nine months will likely have a major impact, do you see the Democratic wave that began in Nov 2017 carrying through to the midterm election this November?
2. Will Republicans be able to counter potential Democratic gains in Sun Belt states by further gains of their own in Midwest states?
3. What will be the impact of Trump? Will he be able to attract independent voters by pointing to the nation's strong economy or will Republican pay an electoral price for his divisiveness and extreme rhetoric?
The Democratic wave will most likely fluctuate depending on specific state policies. Although federal taxes are unavoidable, different states can establish laws or regulations to ease the burden on specific groups of people. This could lead to either an influx of Republicans or Democrats. So, if states with Republican administrations wish for it, it would be relatively easy to affect the flow of people moving. It is very likely that Republicans will be able to counter Democratic gains, since a large majority of the Midwest has quite a few electoral votes. Illinois and Ohio both have 21 and 20 electoral votes, respectively. As well as many other states having 10 or more votes.
ReplyDeleteI believe that Trump's impact on the Republican Party is almost negligible at this point because a large majority of his current voter base gives him their support, no matter what happens. This can be seen from recent polls, which have barely budged even when he's made questionable comments such as by calling some African countries "s***hole countries." The question of attracting independent voters is much harder for Trump because they are much more likely to be put off by Trump's sometimes offensive idiosyncrasies. Overall, I still think the Republican Party will hold off the Democrats this November since their strong showings in the Midwest and Sun Belt are unlikely to disappear in less than a year, barring any major development.
ReplyDeleteI definitely believe the Democratic Wave will carry over to the midterms, but, like Kevin said, it won't be able to swing the states that already show unwavering support for the Republican party. An insurgence of educated, left-leaning workers to red states may sound like a huge leap for the Democratic party, but, to be honest, this alone will have little effect. Just look at the map in this： https://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/texas/
ReplyDeleteThat was the political map of Texas (one of the states this article stated would swing quicker due to this development) in the 2016 elections. There haven't been any major votes since all of our president's blunders, but the main point is to highlight that most of the industrial centers that would attract these young movers are already blue. I'm proud to say that I came from that one square of blue in north-eastern Texas, so I know what it's like in these university towns. More blue votes won't make a difference in a district that is already decidedly democratic.
No, the tax-induced spread of Democratic voters won't make the difference. Red voters who originally, tentatively voted Trump just to vote red who have since become disillusioned with their party- these will make the difference. Yes, I do believe our president's divisive rhetoric has cost the Republican party. We have already gotten a sample of this with the massive turnout against Roy Moore in Alabama (that one state that has its senate elections just a year into the president's term). Last year's few elections provide a helpful insight for what to expect in 2018, I feel. Dems gained a point in senate and a point in the gubernatorial elections, while the house remained largely the same (read: mostly red） since the districts that were up for vote were practically predetermined. My best interpretation of this data: if the state/district is already red/blue, that's unlikely to change. If the red candidate attempts to win with Trump-esque rhetoric (like Moore or Gillespie), their numbers will suffer for it. A simple-minded conclusion for a simple-minded high school student.
Because of the electoral college and low voter turnout, I don't believe that the Democratic wave will carry over into the midterm elections enough to necessarily have a major impact. It's an interesting point to bring up the fact that the Republican's downfall may be self-inflicted (disregarding Trump's affects), but even if younger, presumably Democratic workers flock to the Sun Belt states, there wouldn't be enough of a turnout to realistically affect the outcome of the election. While probable, this is only a possibility, and won't happen quickly enough to change the voter population or even sway it. We've seen it happen once before with Moore, but that was a special case as certain horrific allegations were ongoing at the time of the special election. Unless voter turnout suddenly surges at the time of the next election, states will generally stay unchanged.
ReplyDeleteAnswering question number one, I do not see the Democratic wave that began in November of 2017 carrying through to the midterm election this November. Due to a very low voter turn-out compared to other elections, I feel as if President Trump will lose a lot of his support and that would lead to the destruction of the Republicans.
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